WIND READY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate Change Could Have Major Impacts On Wind Resources
Maril Hazlett, 4 January 2011 (North American Windpower)

"The wind industry sees climate change as an opportunity…due to its lack of greenhouse gas emissions…However, climate change also presents risks and threats to wind energy in terms of wind resources…[T]he major risks for wind power fall into two basic categories - changes in the wind resource distribution and risks to infrastructure…[W]ind resources will likely face some [difficult to predict] shifts in location, intensity, interval and duration…

"…Recent studies give conflicting answers. Last fall, a University of Texas-Austin researcher estimated that global temperature increases of 2 degrees C to 4 degrees C could result in a 4% to 12% decrease in average wind speeds in some northern latitudes. A 2009 Iowa State University study found that average wind speeds across the country have already decreased .5% to 1% since 1973…[R]esearchers at the University of California-Santa Cruz found that climate change might cause coastal winds to increase…"

Winds can vary significantly from the norm momentarily. (click to enlarge)

"[P]art of the complexity has to do with the definition of wind - whether scientists are talking about global air-circulation patterns in the upper atmosphere or local winds in the lower atmosphere…For global air-circulation patterns, the main drivers are differing temperature gradients between the earth’s equator and poles…[G]lobal warming is already heating up pole temperatures (especially the Arctic) at a much faster rate than at the equator…[A]s the temperature gradient between the pole and the equator lessens, global air circulation will slow as well…Local winds could also slow…

"…[I]n other areas, winds may actually increase, thanks to local temperature gradients becoming more influential…[and there] are many other variables, including topography, land use, bodies of water, air moisture and land temperature…many seasonal and daily variables…the jet stream…[and] there are also “interesting possibilities” of shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns such as El Nino/ La Nina Southern Oscillation…The time frame for these changes is unknown…[though] climate change appears to be proceeding faster than the original IPCC projections…"

Winds vary from the upper to the lower atmosphere. (click to enlarge)

"The wind industry will also likely face difficulty with site selection and wind forecasting…[C]hanges in water availability, growing seasons, crops, human health and air quality could eventually spur long-term population shifts…[that] might cause land-use changes that would in turn affect local wind patterns or force a redistribution of energy infrastructure…

"…[But] wind holds a significant advantage over other forms of power. Unlike natural gas, nuclear or coal, wind power does not compete for increasingly scarce water resources…The wind industry also has strengths that will help it in climate-change adaptation. Turbine efficiency will result in turbines that can produce more power with less wind…[and] storage technologies such as pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage, batteries and electric vehicles will become increasingly viable…"